Introduction
Research Questions
- What are the factors associated with the sequence of milestone completion? What are the factors associated with completing each milestone? What are the factors associated with completing the milestones in the prescribed order of the success sequence?
- Among people who take similar pathways, what are the factors associated with achieving economic self-sufficiency? What are the factors associated with following the success sequence milestones in the prescribed order and not achieving economic self-sufficiency? What are the factors associated with not following the success sequence milestones in the prescribed order and achieving economic self-sufficiency?
The success sequence is a term discussed in the context of policy approaches for reducing poverty and improving economic opportunity for adolescents and young adults. The term refers to a series of milestones in life—most commonly defined to include high school completion, full-time employment, and waiting for marriage to have children—that are associated with escaping poverty and joining the middle class.
This is the third in a series of reports on the success sequence that Mathematica has conducted for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The first report (Goesling et al. 2020) reviewed the literature on the success sequence and found that while individual milestones mattered for economic self-sufficiency, there was limited research indicating that the order of these milestones matters. The second report (Inanc et al. 2021) quantitatively investigated the relationship between completing the success sequence and achieving economic self-sufficiency. Results from the investigation revealed an association between the success sequence and economic self-sufficiency; however, the success sequence alone did not appear to predict economic self-sufficiency. Further, other pathways also led to economic self-sufficiency. To explore and understand what influences whether someone completes the milestones, whether they complete them in order, and whether they achieve economic self-sufficiency, Mathematica conducted a follow-up study based on both quantitative and qualitative data. This report presents findings from this mixed-methods study that investigates the factors associated with following the success sequence and economic self-sufficiency.
Purpose
Findings from previous research show that adolescents take different pathways in their transition to adulthood. Not all of these pathways follow the prescribed order in the success sequence model, and the most common combinations and sequences of milestones vary by sex, race and ethnicity, and parental level of education. The share of young adults who adhere to the success sequence model also varies by these demographic characteristics. These results highlight the importance of understanding the factors and circumstances that lead young adults to the various pathways and milestone completion, and raise the following questions: Do differences in milestone completion primarily reflect differences in demographics and family background? Or do differences in personal values, environmental characteristics, childhood and adolescence experiences and characteristics also play a role? Findings from previous research also demonstrate that the success sequence alone does not determine economic self-sufficiency. This makes it all the more important to understand why some people achieve economic self-sufficiency, and others who complete the same milestones do not achieve the same economic success.
Key Findings and Highlights
- The quantitative analysis showed that parents and family charachteristics, followed by adolescent characteristics, behaviors, and relationships, were the two categories of factors that played the largest role explaining who completed the high school, employment, and childbearing milestones, who did and did not follow a success sequence pathway, and who became economically self-sufficient.
- However, the ways that these factors influenced individuals vary depending on the outcome being analyzed. For example, for parents and family characteristics, our qualitative interviews suggest that although a stable home environment is an important factor in finishing high school, family values play a bigger role in completing the marriage milestone.
- In interviews, most participants said they had planned to follow a success sequence pathway, but only some of them were able to. Those who could not reported encountering barriers they had not anticipated, such as lack of parental support and health problems.
- The interviews also revealed some barriers to economic self-sufficiency. People who followed the success sequence and did not achieve economic self-sufficiency faced barriers such as mental or physical health troubles, childcare constraints, and stable but low-paying jobs.
- People who did not follow the success sequence and achieved economic self-sufficiency credited factors such as the support of family and social networks, postsecondary education, working their way up from entry-level jobs, and luck.
Methods
This report uses data from two complementary sources: (1) nationally representative quantitative data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 Cohort (NLSY97) and (2) qualitative data collected by the study team through online written interviews with 225 adults ages 30—35. We considered respondents as following a success sequence pathway if they either completed all milestones (high school completion, full-time employment, marriage, and childbearing) in the prescribed order or were on track to complete them in order by ages 30-35. We defined economic self-sufficiency as achieving middle-class status, measured by having a household income above 300 percent of the federal poverty level, adjusted for household size. To understand influences on young adults’ milestone completion and economic self-sufficiency, in our quantitative analysis, we focused on factors observed until age 18, such as parent and family characteristics; characteristics and influences in a person’s childhood and adolescence. In our qualitative analysis, we explored factors that emerge both during and after youth, such as personal values, family support, and economic conditions.
Citation
Inanc, Hande, Ariella Spitzer, and Briana Starks (2023). What Influences the Success Sequence and Economic Self-Sufficiency? Findings from a Mixed-Method Study. OPRE Report # 2023-251, Washington, DC: Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation, Administration for Children and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.